泰柬邊境衝突背後的友誼破裂

Thailand and Cambodia, two neighboring countries in Southeast Asia, have a long history of disputes along their shared border. The border is covered with forests and includes areas that both countries claim as their own. Over the years, these disagreements have sometimes led to violence. In 2008 and 2011, for example, there were serious clashes that resulted in about 40 deaths. However, those conflicts were resolved fairly quickly, as both sides were eager to avoid a larger war. Even earlier this year, after a Cambodian soldier was killed, leaders from both countries met to calm things down and prevent more violence.

The situation changed dramatically this week. On Wednesday, five Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine near the border. The next day, fighting broke out, and Thai officials reported that at least 15 people had been killed, most of them civilians. Cambodian authorities said at least one civilian had died on their side as well. People living near the border are frightened and have been taking shelter to avoid the violence. This latest conflict is more serious than previous ones, and it seems to have been made worse by problems between the leaders of the two countries. Last month, Cambodia's long-time leader, Hun Sen, embarrassed Thailand's Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, by leaking a private phone call between them. In the call, Paetongtarn called Hun Sen 'uncle' and criticized one of her own military commanders. This angered many people in Thailand, and Paetongtarn was suspended from her job as Prime Minister. Now, Thailand's Constitutional Court is considering whether to remove her from office completely.

The relationship between the two countries used to be much better. Paetongtarn believed she could solve the border problems by relying on her family's friendship with Hun Sen. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, was also a former Prime Minister, and their families had been close for decades. In the past, this friendship was sometimes used against Thaksin, with his opponents accusing him of favoring Cambodia over Thailand. There have also been secret deals between the two countries, such as when Thailand sent Cambodian refugees back to Cambodia, even though they were recognized by the United Nations. There have been other troubling incidents, like the disappearance of a Thai activist in Cambodia and the killing of a Cambodian opposition leader in Bangkok.

The leaking of the phone call seems to have shocked the Shinawatra family and made the situation much worse. Both Thaksin and Paetongtarn feel betrayed, and the two countries have started to argue more publicly. Thai police are now investigating Cambodian businesspeople who are suspected of being involved in illegal gambling and scam operations. Trade between the two countries, which is worth billions of dollars each year, has stopped. At the border, the risk of more fighting is growing. Hun Sen has taken the opportunity to attack Thailand and the Shinawatra family, claiming he has secret documents that could get Thaksin in trouble, possibly even for insulting the Thai monarchy, which is a serious crime in Thailand. In response, Thailand expelled the Cambodian ambassador and recalled its own ambassador from Cambodia.

Neither side seems willing to back down. Cambodia's new Prime Minister, Hun Manet, is still inexperienced, and his father, Hun Sen, appears ready to push the conflict further. Thailand's government is also weak, dealing with economic problems and the threat of new US tariffs. Both countries are struggling financially, and tourism has not recovered since the pandemic. Despite these challenges, there are still experienced leaders like Hun Sen and Thaksin who might be able to find a solution if they choose to work together. Other countries in Southeast Asia, especially those in the ASEAN group, may also try to help resolve the conflict, since one of their main goals is to prevent fighting among member countries. The real reason why Hun Sen decided to break off his friendship with the Shinawatra family and escalate the conflict is still unclear. It could be related to business interests, like gambling, or it could be a political move to strengthen his position at home. For now, the situation remains tense, and many people are hoping for a peaceful resolution.