中東衝突：將如何結束？

The Middle East has been in turmoil for a year now, and the images of two grieving women remind us of the pain that has unfolded. Just a year ago, Israel was struck by the worst attack in its history, while Gaza was already suffering from relentless bombardment. This sudden escalation in the Israel-Palestine conflict caught many off guard, especially since it had been relatively quiet for years. In fact, just a week before the attacks, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan had confidently stated that the Middle East was quieter than it had been in two decades. Fast forward to today, and the region is engulfed in flames. The death toll has surpassed 41,000 Palestinians, with two million people displaced from Gaza. In the West Bank, another 600 Palestinians have lost their lives, and in Lebanon, over one million people have been forced to flee their homes, with more than 2,000 casualties. On that fateful day, more than 1,200 Israelis were killed, and since then, Israel has lost an additional 350 soldiers in Gaza. The conflict has also displaced around 200,000 Israelis living near Gaza and the volatile northern border with Lebanon, where Hezbollah rockets have claimed the lives of around 50 soldiers and civilians. As the situation escalates, the question arises: is there a path to peace in the Middle East? This evening, BBC Radio 4 will explore this topic. Despite the US's persistent efforts to prevent the crisis from worsening, including presidential visits and extensive diplomatic missions, the situation has only deteriorated. Rockets have been launched from Iraq and Yemen, and Israel and Iran have exchanged attacks, with more likely to follow. The influence of Washington seems to be waning as the conflict spreads, and its origins are becoming less visible, much like a car crash fading from view as a truck speeds toward even greater disasters. The lives of Gazans, both before and after October 7, have been largely overlooked as the media focuses on the potential for an all-out war in the Middle East. Some Israelis, whose lives were turned upside down by the attacks, feel similarly neglected. Yehuda Cohen, the father of a hostage, expressed his frustration, stating that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is responsible for a 'pointless war' that has united all of Israel's enemies against them. He believes that Netanyahu is downplaying the significance of the events of October 7. However, not all Israelis share Cohen's perspective. Many view the Hamas attacks as the beginning of a larger campaign to destroy Israel. The Israeli response, which has included targeted assassinations and extensive bombing raids, has restored some confidence in the country. Netanyahu recently declared that 'there is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach,' and his approval ratings, which had plummeted after October 7, are now beginning to rise again. But the question remains: where is this all heading? Simon Gass, a former British ambassador to Iran, stated that no one knows when the violence will cease or what the future holds. The US remains involved, but its recent actions feel more like crisis management than a genuine effort to find diplomatic solutions. With a presidential election just weeks away, this is not the ideal time for bold new initiatives. The immediate challenge is to prevent the conflict from escalating further. There is a general belief among Israel's allies that the country has the right to respond to Iran's recent missile attack, even though no Israelis were killed. Netanyahu has promised a strong response, despite the attack seemingly targeting military sites. After weeks of military success, Netanyahu appears to have grand ambitions, hinting at potential regime change in Iran. He stated, 'When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think, everything will be different. ' However, some observers find his rhetoric reminiscent of the arguments made by American neoconservatives before the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Despite the dangers, there are still some limits to what can happen. The Iranian regime may dream of a world without Israel, but it knows it is too weak to confront the region's only superpower, especially as its allies, Hezbollah and Hamas, are facing significant challenges. Israel, which would like to eliminate the threat posed by Iran, also understands that it cannot do this alone, despite its recent successes. Regime change is not on the agenda for President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris. Even former President Donald Trump, who once seemed ready to attack Iran, backed down at the last moment. A year ago, few would have predicted that the Middle East would be facing such a perilous moment. However, looking back, the past twelve months seem to follow a troubling logic. With so much destruction now evident, policymakers and the public are struggling to keep pace with the unfolding events. As the conflict in Gaza continues into its second year, discussions about the future of Gaza and the resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict have faded away, drowned out by the noise of a wider war. For now, it seems that peace is a distant hope.