關於賓州的競選，民調告訴我們什麼？

With less than a month remaining until election day, the competition for the White House is extremely close. Currently, Kamala Harris holds a slight edge over Donald Trump in national polls, a lead she has maintained since she entered the race at the end of July. However, the outcome of the US election is often determined by a few key states known as swing states, where both candidates have a fair chance of winning. Among these swing states, Pennsylvania stands out as the most significant because it offers the highest number of electoral college votes. This makes it easier for the winning candidate to reach the necessary 270 votes to secure the presidency. So, what insights do the polls provide regarding the potential winner in Pennsylvania? Back in July, the polling data appeared grim for the Democrats in Pennsylvania. Joe Biden's numbers had taken a hit following a lackluster performance in the first presidential debate, allowing Trump to pull ahead by more than four percentage points. However, as the Harris campaign gained momentum, the Democrats' fortunes began to shift. Once enough polls were available to calculate an average, data from the polling analysis website 538 indicated that Harris had established a narrow lead over her Republican opponent. She has managed to maintain that lead, albeit by a slim margin. Currently, the latest figures show Harris at 47. 9% and Trump at 47. 5%, representing one of the narrowest leads in the swing states. Given such close margins, it becomes challenging to determine who is genuinely ahead, especially considering that every poll conducted in Pennsylvania carries a margin of error, meaning the actual numbers could be slightly higher or lower. If the polls are accurate and Pennsylvania is indeed as close as they suggest, it should not come as a surprise. In 2016, Trump won the state by a mere 44,000 votes, marking the first time a Republican had achieved this since George HW Bush in 1988. Four years later, Biden reclaimed Pennsylvania by a margin of 80,000 votes out of nearly seven million cast. For Harris, the significance of winning Pennsylvania is clear; no Democrat has won the White House without securing this state since 1948. As it stands, the polls indicate that the race will likely remain tight until the very end. The BBC's flagship political debate program, Question Time, is set to take place in Pennsylvania on Thursday, October 10. The event will be held at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, hosted by Fiona Bruce, and will feature a local audience. The panel will include the BBC's Anthony Zurcher, former Trump campaign adviser Bryan Lanza, and commentator Mehdi Hasan. The program will be streamed on the BBC website starting at 4 PM EST (9 PM BST), with UK audiences able to watch on BBC One and iPlayer, while global viewers can tune in on the BBC News channel.