鮑文：以色列取得戰術勝利，但真主黨不會被嚇倒

Recently, Israel achieved a significant tactical victory in a military operation that resembles a scene from a thrilling novel. This success is undoubtedly a major embarrassment for Hezbollah, a powerful political and military group in Lebanon, which may lead to increased insecurity and a decline in their morale. However, this victory does not address Israel's larger strategic goal of preventing Hezbollah's attacks and allowing the over 60,000 Israelis living near the northern border, who have been away from their homes for nearly a year, to return safely. The Israeli forces employed a crucial and bold weapon that has proven to be effective in their operations. Nevertheless, reports from Al Monitor, a respected Middle Eastern news outlet, indicate that the Israeli military was unable to execute their plan as intended. Initially, the strategy was for Israel to launch devastating follow-up attacks while Hezbollah was still recovering from the initial strike. The pager attack was meant to be the first step in a larger escalation, possibly leading to an offensive or invasion of southern Lebanon. However, these reports suggest that Hezbollah became suspicious of Israel's intentions, prompting the Israeli forces to initiate the attack earlier than planned. While Israel has demonstrated its ability to infiltrate Hezbollah's communications and humiliate the group, this operation does not bring the region any closer to peace. In fact, it may push the situation closer to an all-out war. Currently, the prospects for de-escalation in the Middle East hinge on the ongoing conflict in Gaza. As long as the fighting continues there, tensions with Lebanon, attacks in the Red Sea from the Houthis, and conflicts with Iraq will persist. The US envoy to Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, has been diligently working for months to engage with the Lebanese, indirectly with Hezbollah, and with the Israelis to seek a diplomatic resolution. However, it has been reported that the Israelis did not inform the US about their plans until the last moment, which could hinder Hochstein's efforts. There have been renewed American predictions that a ceasefire in Gaza is imminent, but these hopes face two significant obstacles. The first is the Hamas leader, Yahya Sinwar, who demands that Israel withdraw from the Gaza Strip permanently and release a large number of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for the remaining Israeli hostages. The second obstacle is Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who remains steadfast in his belief that Israel can achieve a total victory over Hamas. The prevailing sentiment in Israel is that Netanyahu benefits from prolonging the conflict, despite pressure from families of hostages and their supporters to negotiate a deal for their safe return. Additionally, Netanyahu's ultranationalist allies in his coalition have threatened to destabilize the government if he pursues a deal. Israel and its allies assert that targeting Hezbollah is a legitimate act of self-defense. However, there are serious concerns regarding the impact of Israeli attacks on innocent civilians. CCTV footage has shown a pager exploding in a crowded market while its owner was shopping for groceries. Reports from Lebanon indicate that a young girl lost her life when her father's pager detonated. While Hezbollah may be reeling from this attack, they will quickly regroup as an organization and find alternative means of communication. Lebanon is a small country, and messages can easily be conveyed by hand. It is clear that Hezbollah and its allies in Iran, whose ambassador to Beirut was injured in the attack, will be recovering from this incident. However, the region has once again been pushed to the brink of a larger conflict. If this situation continues, it is likely that the region will plunge into chaos. Friends and relatives of those injured have been arriving at the American University of Beirut Medical Center, and the destruction is evident throughout the area. The situation remains tense, and the potential for further escalation looms large.