美國大選民意調查：誰領先──哈里斯還是川普？

On November 5, voters in the United States will head to the polls to choose their next president. This election is particularly significant as it could result in the election of Kamala Harris, the first woman president, or it could see Donald Trump secure a second term in office. Initially, this election was expected to be a rematch of the 2020 election, but the dynamics shifted dramatically in July when President Joe Biden suspended his campaign and endorsed Vice-President Kamala Harris. As the election day draws near, the central question remains: will America elect its first female president or will Trump return to the White House? Since Kamala Harris entered the race at the end of July, she has consistently led in national polling averages. The latest figures indicate that she has maintained a lead over Trump, which is illustrated in the accompanying chart. A significant televised debate took place on September 10 in Pennsylvania, attracting an audience of over 67 million viewers. Following the debate, many national polls conducted in the week after suggested that Harris's performance had positively impacted her standing, with her lead increasing from 2. 5 percentage points on the day of the debate to 3. 3 points just over a week later. This slight increase in her lead was primarily attributed to a decline in Trump's numbers, which had been on the rise prior to the debate but fell by half a percentage point in the week following it. While national polls provide a useful overview of a candidate's popularity across the country, they do not necessarily predict the election outcome accurately. This is due to the United States' electoral college system, where each state is allocated a number of votes roughly proportional to its population size. A total of 538 electoral college votes are available, and a candidate must secure at least 270 to win the presidency. Although there are 50 states in the U. S. , most states tend to vote consistently for one party, meaning that only a few states are truly competitive. These competitive states are known as battleground states, and they are where the election will ultimately be decided. Currently, the polls indicate a very close race in the seven battleground states for this election, with only one or two percentage points separating Harris and Trump. Pennsylvania is particularly crucial, as it has the highest number of electoral votes among these states, making it easier for a candidate to reach the necessary 270 votes. Notably, on the day Biden exited the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these battleground states. It is important to note that there are fewer state polls than national polls being conducted at this time, which means we have less data to analyze. Additionally, every poll has a margin of error, meaning the actual numbers could be higher or lower. However, examining the trends since Harris joined the race helps to identify the states where she appears to be in a stronger position, according to polling averages. The data shows that Harris has been leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin since early August. These three states were previously strongholds for the Democrats before Trump won them in 2016. Biden managed to reclaim them in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will be well on her way to winning the election. The averages presented in the graphics above are compiled by 538, a part of the American news network ABC News. To create these averages, 538 gathers data from individual polls conducted both nationally and in battleground states by various polling companies. As part of their quality control process, 538 only includes polls from companies that meet specific criteria, such as being transparent about the number of people surveyed, when the poll was conducted, and the method used (telephone calls, text messages, online surveys, etc. ). It is essential to consider whether we can trust the polls. Currently, the polls suggest that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are very close in battleground states, making it challenging to predict a clear winner. In previous elections, polls underestimated Trump's support in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies are working to address this issue in various ways, including adjusting their methods to better reflect the demographics of the voting population. However, these adjustments are complex, and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about factors such as voter turnout on November 5.