「這真的很簡單」——為什麼拉丁裔會湧向川普的工人階級聯盟

Donald Trump has achieved a significant victory in the recent election against Kamala Harris, and this outcome has sparked discussions about the reasons behind it. Trump has once again demonstrated his strong appeal among white working-class voters, a group that played a crucial role in his initial election to the presidency in 2016. However, this time, he has also garnered substantial support from Latino voters, marking a notable shift in the political landscape. According to exit polls, Trump received a remarkable 14 percentage-point increase in support from Latino voters compared to the 2020 election. This change is particularly evident in key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which were instrumental in Joe Biden's victory in 2020. In his victory speech delivered in Florida, Trump attributed his success to what he described as 'the biggest, the broadest, the most unified coalition' in American history. He emphasized the diversity of his supporters, stating, 'They came from all quarters. Union, non-union, African American, Hispanic American. ' In Pennsylvania, a state that holds significant importance in elections, Trump experienced a surge in support from the growing Latino population. With approximately 600,000 eligible Latino voters in the state, including a substantial Puerto Rican community, exit polls indicated that Latinos accounted for about 5% of the total vote. Trump managed to secure 42% of that vote, a notable increase from the 27% he received when running against Biden in 2020. While the polls may continue to evolve as votes are counted, they provide a general representation of the shifting electoral trends. In the 'Latino belt' of Pennsylvania, an area that has leaned more towards the Republican Party in recent elections, some voters expressed that they were not surprised by the outcome. Samuel Negron, a state constable and member of the Puerto Rican community in Allentown, stated, 'It's simple, really. We liked the way things were four years ago. ' Negron and other Trump supporters in the now majority-Latino city cited various reasons for their community's shift towards Trump, including social issues and a growing alignment of family values with the Republican Party. However, the most significant factor driving this change was the economy, particularly concerns about inflation. Negron pointed out the rising cost of living, saying, 'Out here, you pay $5 for a dozen eggs. It used to be $1, or even 99 cents. ' Many voters felt disillusioned by what they perceived as Democratic promises that did not materialize, leading them to believe that life was better under Trump's presidency. Ahead of the election, polls indicated that many Latino voters across the United States, including those in Pennsylvania, were attracted to Trump's proposals for stricter immigration policies and border control. Daniel Campo, a Venezuelan-American, expressed his concerns about the current immigration situation, stating, 'I understand what [migrants] are leaving. But you have to do it the right way. I came the right way. ' He emphasized the need for legal immigration processes, expressing worries that the Biden-Harris administration had left the borders too open. The collective shift of Latino voters towards Trump, combined with his strong support from white working-class voters and increased backing from non-college-educated voters, created a formidable challenge for the Harris campaign. Surprisingly, Trump also made gains in unexpected demographics. In 2020, Biden held a 24-point advantage among voters under 30, but this lead shrank to just 11 points in the recent election. While black voters nationally still overwhelmingly supported Harris, Trump's support among this demographic more than doubled in Wisconsin, rising from 8% in 2020 to 22% this election. The battlegrounds in Wisconsin, particularly the three counties surrounding Milwaukee known as the Wow counties, saw Harris failing to improve upon Biden's 2020 vote share. Additionally, preliminary results indicated that Harris did not secure as many votes as Biden in Milwaukee, the state's largest and most diverse city. Michael Wagner, a professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, noted that Harris's direct appeals to working-class voters may not have had a significant impact given the current political climate. Voters like Ted Dietzler, who cast his ballot in Waukesha, expressed their reasons for supporting Trump, citing issues such as border control, the economy, and a desire for peace. Dietzler remarked, 'We saw a huge difference when Trump was president. ' He also mentioned being drawn to Trump's inclusion of former Democrats in his administration. In Michigan, Trump's economic messaging resonated with working-class voters as well. With nearly all votes counted, Trump is leading in a state he lost in 2020 by about 85,000 votes. He increased his support in rural areas and Macomb County, home to many working-class voters in the Detroit suburbs. Nahim Uddin, a delivery driver and former Ford worker, voted for Trump because he believed Trump would lower prices. Uddin stated, 'I went to go purchase a car - the interest rates had skyrocketed. ' Similarly, Yian Yian Shein, a small business owner, expressed her belief that Trump would lower income taxes and help people like her. Democrats attempted to tailor their economic messages in Michigan, highlighting investments in electric car manufacturing and securing endorsements from labor leaders. However, Republicans countered these messages by arguing that the transition to electric vehicles would come at the expense of jobs. Ultimately, the perception that Democrats were responsible for high prices and economic struggles contributed to their losses among blue-collar voters across various demographic groups. University of Michigan professor Jonathan Hanson noted, 'Largely, voters have felt economic pain due to the post-Covid inflationary period, and they’re taking it out on Biden and Harris.