泰國女繼承人帶回分裂的王朝——但能持續多久？

In Thailand, a significant political shift is occurring with the emergence of Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Thaksin, who was ousted from power and spent 15 years in exile, returned to Thailand last August. Now, his daughter, who is 37 years old, is poised to take on the role of prime minister, making her only the second woman to hold this position in the country, following her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra. Known affectionately as Ung Ing, Paetongtarn has become a well-known figure in Thai politics, especially after leading her party, Pheu Thai, during the recent general election. She has shown remarkable dedication, campaigning vigorously even while pregnant with her second child. However, her family, particularly her mother Potjaman, has expressed concerns about her becoming prime minister, fearing that she might face the same legal challenges that forced both her father and aunt into exile. The unexpected dismissal of the current prime minister, Srettha Thavisin, by the constitutional court has put Paetongtarn in a position where she may have to step up. With limited options available, she emerged as a candidate alongside an older former prosecutor who lacked the energy and charisma needed for the role. Paetongtarn's background primarily lies in the family business, the Rende hotel group, and she only joined the Pheu Thai party in 2021. Taking on the role of prime minister means she is entering a complex political landscape. Paetongtarn identifies as a compassionate capitalist and supports progressive social policies, including Thailand's new equal marriage law. However, she is often referred to as 'daddy's girl', which implies that her actions in government may be viewed as influenced by her father. Thaksin remains a polarizing figure in Thailand, and his return was part of a deal with conservative forces, including the military and royalists, who have opposed him for over two decades. The recent success of the reformist Move Forward party in the last election has forced Pheu Thai and the Shinawatra family into a secondary position for the first time. This shift has prompted conservative parties, which performed poorly, to reevaluate their strategies. Pheu Thai managed to form a coalition with 11 other parties, many of which have historically been adversaries of Thaksin, to prevent Move Forward from gaining power. However, the mistrust surrounding Thaksin has not dissipated. Although he is not officially a member of Pheu Thai, he is still perceived as a significant financial supporter and has been active in party events since his return. Some critics have accused him of influencing the appointment of a lawyer with a controversial past, which led to the constitutional court ruling against the current prime minister. This ruling is interpreted as a warning to Thaksin to temper his ambitions. Additionally, Thaksin faces legal challenges related to comments made during his exile, which could have serious implications for him in the future. All these factors complicate Paetongtarn's position. Pheu Thai has built its reputation on improving the economy and the living standards of poorer Thais. However, the Thai economy is currently grappling with long-standing structural issues that resist quick fixes. The party's flagship policy from the last election, which promised a one-time payment to citizens, has encountered opposition due to its financial implications. With limited policy options to enhance their political standing in the coming years, Pheu Thai will also face strong opposition from the restructured Move Forward Party. Furthermore, Pheu Thai's coalition now holds less than half of the seats in parliament, and their conservative partners may not be motivated to support a successful Pheu Thai-led government. Historically, all four previous Shinawatra-led governments were ousted before completing their terms due to court rulings or military interventions. Paetongtarn hopes to break this cycle of instability, but given the ongoing turmoil in Thai politics, the challenges ahead appear daunting.