矽谷人工智慧熱潮：泡沫危機還是科技革命即將到來？

Silicon Valley, known as the heart of the technology world, is buzzing with concerns about artificial intelligence, or AI. Many major tech companies, including Apple and OpenAI, are based there, and the rapid growth of AI has led to questions about whether the industry is experiencing a financial bubble. A bubble happens when the value of companies rises too quickly and too high, often due to excitement and speculation, rather than real business success. If this bubble bursts, it could have serious consequences for the tech industry and the wider economy.

At OpenAI's DevDay event, Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, spoke openly with reporters, which is rare for tech leaders these days. He admitted that some parts of the AI industry seem 'bubbly,' meaning they might be overvalued. Altman said that investors sometimes make poor decisions and give large amounts of money to startups that may not succeed. However, he believes that OpenAI is different and is creating something truly valuable. Despite his confidence, not everyone is convinced. Recently, organizations like the Bank of England and the International Monetary Fund have warned about the risks of an AI bubble, saying that people should be more cautious.

Jerry Kaplan, an early AI entrepreneur, shared his concerns at a panel discussion in Silicon Valley. He has seen four financial bubbles in his career and thinks the current situation is especially risky because there is much more money involved than during the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. Kaplan warned that if the AI bubble bursts, it could drag down the entire economy, not just the tech sector. At Stanford Graduate School of Business, Professor Anat Admati explained that it is very difficult to predict when a bubble will burst. She said that you can only be sure a bubble existed after it has already collapsed.

AI companies have played a big role in the impressive gains of the American stock market this year. Research firm Gartner estimates that the value of AI-related businesses could reach $1. 5 trillion by the end of 2025. OpenAI is at the center of many complex deals, including a $100 billion agreement with Nvidia, the world's most valuable publicly traded company. This deal expands Nvidia's investment in OpenAI, with plans for OpenAI to build data centers using Nvidia's advanced chips. OpenAI also announced a deal to buy billions of dollars worth of equipment from AMD, another chipmaker, which could make OpenAI one of AMD's largest shareholders.

Microsoft and Oracle, two tech giants, have also invested heavily in OpenAI. Oracle has a $300 billion deal with OpenAI, and together with Japanese company SoftBank, they are helping fund a massive data center in Texas. Nvidia also has a stake in CoreWeave, an AI startup that supplies infrastructure to OpenAI. These complicated financial arrangements are making it harder for experts to understand the true demand for AI technology. Some critics call these deals 'circular financing' or 'vendor financing,' where companies invest in their own customers to keep sales going.

Sam Altman acknowledged that these investment loans are unusual, but he argued that the rapid growth in revenue is also unprecedented. Despite this growth, OpenAI has never made a profit. Some people compare the situation to Nortel, a Canadian company that borrowed heavily to finance deals for its customers, which eventually led to its downfall. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, defended his company's deal with OpenAI, saying that OpenAI is free to use the money however it wants, and there are no exclusive agreements.

Jerry Kaplan pointed out some warning signs that the AI sector could be in trouble. He said that companies are announcing big projects without having enough money, and many individual investors are eager to get involved in AI startups. The recent surge in AMD's stock price suggests that investors are trying to benefit from the success of ChatGPT and other AI technologies. Meanwhile, huge data centers are being built to support AI development, but Kaplan worries that these facilities could become environmental hazards if they are abandoned.

OpenAI is planning to build a massive complex in Texas, costing $500 billion. Even if the AI bubble bursts, some people hope that the investments being made now will lead to new products and experiences in the future. Jeff Boudier from Hugging Face said that overinvestment in AI infrastructure could create financial risks, but it might also enable exciting innovations that we can't even imagine yet.

There are many people who believe in AI's potential to transform society, but there are also concerns about whether there is enough money to support the ambitions of leading companies. Rihard Jarc, a technology analyst, wonders who else besides Nvidia has the resources to invest $100 billion in another company. The future of AI is full of promise, but also uncertainty, as Silicon Valley watches closely to see what will happen next.