貿易、援助、安全：川普的勝利對非洲意味著什麼？

As Donald Trump secured his second term as President of the United States, leaders from various African nations took to social media to express their congratulations. Zimbabwe's President Emmerson Mnangagwa tweeted, 'Zimbabwe stands ready to work with you,' while Nigeria's Bola Tinubu expressed optimism that Trump's new presidency would foster 'reciprocal economic and development partnerships between Africa and the United States. ' However, many are left wondering what Trump's second term will mean for the African continent. During his first term, Trump faced criticism for his perceived indifference towards Africa, having cut funding, restricted immigration, and reportedly referred to some African nations as 'shithole countries. ' Nevertheless, he also initiated programs aimed at boosting investment in Africa, some of which continue to operate even after his departure from office. The question now is how he will approach Africa in this new political landscape. Trade and investment are crucial areas of concern. Joe Biden's administration made significant efforts to portray Africa as a valued partner, according to W Gyude Moore, a fellow at the Center for Global Development and a former minister in Liberia. While Biden's administration struggled to translate this enthusiasm into substantial deals, it did not mean that their Africa strategy was entirely ineffective. For instance, the US received praise for its investment in the Lobito Corridor, a rail line that traverses Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Zambia, facilitating the transport of essential raw materials. Since Biden took office, the US has reportedly invested over $22 billion in Africa. However, there are fears that Trump may reverse this trend. His protectionist stance, exemplified by the slogan 'America First,' suggests a potential retreat from international partnerships. A significant concern is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which has allowed eligible African countries to export certain goods to the US without incurring taxes since 2000. Trump previously indicated that he would not renew this program when it expires in 2025. Additionally, during his 2024 campaign, he pledged to impose a universal 10% income tariff on all foreign-made goods, which could lead to increased costs for imported products and potentially reduce African exports to the US market. Many analysts in South Africa, one of the largest beneficiaries of the Agoa agreement, predict that cutting Agoa could have a substantial impact on the economy. However, a US think tank has estimated that South Africa's GDP would only shrink by a mere 0. 06% if Agoa were to be eliminated, as many of the goods South Africa exports to the US, such as minerals and metals, do not benefit from the Agoa program. Despite his reservations about Agoa, Trump recognized that to counter China's growing economic influence in Africa, the US needed to maintain some level of partnership. In 2018, the Trump administration launched Prosper Africa, an initiative designed to assist US companies looking to invest in Africa, along with the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which funds development projects across the continent and beyond. Biden has continued these initiatives, and reports indicate that the DFC has invested over $10 billion in Africa thus far. Given China's significant presence in Africa and the fact that Trump himself initiated these policies, it is likely that he will think carefully before making drastic cuts. Aid is another critical aspect of US-African relations. The US has been a major source of aid for Africa, contributing nearly $3. 7 billion in the current financial year. However, during his previous administration, Trump proposed significant cuts to foreign aid, which were met with bipartisan opposition in Congress. If the Republicans gain a stronger majority in Congress following the recent elections, there may be less resistance to potential aid cuts. The party has already secured control of the Senate and currently holds a majority in the House of Representatives. There are also concerns that Trump may seek to terminate Pepfar, a longstanding US initiative that has invested heavily in combating HIV in Africa. Last year, Republican lawmakers raised objections to Pepfar, claiming that the program was promoting abortion services. Although Pepfar received a short-term extension until March of the following year, Trump's known anti-abortion stance raises questions about the program's future. Immigration is another area where Trump's policies could have significant implications for Africa. His views on illegal immigration are well-documented, and during his 2024 campaign, he made his stance clear. This is particularly relevant for Africa, as approximately 13,000 African migrants were recorded at the US-Mexico border in 2022, a number that quadrupled to 58,000 by 2023. Many of these individuals are fleeing war, persecution, and poverty. During his first term, Trump implemented measures that restricted immigration from several African nations, including Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan, and Tanzania. Reports indicate that migrants from Kenya, numbering around 160,000, are concerned about potential discrimination under a Trump presidency. Lastly, security and conflict are pressing issues that may shape Trump's approach to Africa. While Trump was out of office, Russia has increased its influence in Africa by providing military support to countries grappling with jihadist threats, such as Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. This has raised alarms in the US, given the historical rivalry between the two nations. Will Trump take action to support African nations in countering Russian influence? Although the US national security framework views Russia as a threat, Trump has not consistently acted as if he perceives it that way. Some analysts suggest that he may have a closer relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin than he publicly acknowledges. Nevertheless, Trump has previously intervened to assist Nigeria in its fight against Boko Haram, an Islamist militant group that has plagued the country for years. A former Nigerian lawmaker noted that while the Obama administration declined Nigeria's requests for military support, Trump ultimately approved the purchase of military aircraft to bolster Nigeria's defenses. Additionally, the ongoing civil war in Sudan, which has resulted in significant loss of life, poses another challenge. Moore expressed skepticism about whether the Trump administration would prioritize the situation in Sudan compared to the Biden administration. Ultimately, predicting Trump's focus and actions upon returning to office remains uncertain. As Moore stated, 'Trump is very unorthodox in how he does everything,' suggesting that we should be prepared for unexpected developments, which may not always be positive.