這週將中東推向全面戰爭

In the last week, the Middle East has experienced a series of alarming events that have raised fears of a potential all-out war. The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, the Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon, and Iran's launch of nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel have all contributed to a rapidly escalating conflict. Despite efforts from Western and regional powers, particularly the United States, to de-escalate the situation, these attempts have so far been unsuccessful. The United Nations Security Council has called for an immediate end to hostilities, and the G7 nations, which include the US, UK, and Germany, have urged for restraint. However, the reality on the ground suggests that the Middle East is closer to war than ever before. The timeline of events began on Friday evening, September 27, when a series of massive explosions rocked the southern part of Beirut. These explosions were the result of an Israeli strike aimed at an underground bunker, which ultimately led to the death of Nasrallah. His assassination marked a significant turning point, as he had not been seen in public for years due to fears of being targeted by Israel. The attack left a large crater in the ground and caused extensive damage to several apartment buildings, sending shockwaves throughout the city. Just hours before the strike, there had been discussions about a potential 21-day ceasefire during the United Nations General Assembly in New York. However, following Nasrallah's death, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly returned home, signaling the end of any hopes for diplomatic resolution. By Monday night, Israeli forces had crossed into Lebanon, officially commencing a ground invasion. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that their operations would be limited and targeted, but the reality is that nearly 1. 2 million people have been displaced from their homes due to the fighting. At least eight Israeli soldiers have lost their lives in the conflict. Israel's objective is to dismantle Hezbollah's capabilities to launch attacks across the border, a situation that has persisted since Hamas's deadly raid into southern Israel nearly a year ago. This dual-front war, with Israel engaged in combat in both Gaza and Lebanon, is unprecedented in recent history. The last major conflict between Israel and Hezbollah occurred in 2006 and ended without a clear resolution, leaving Hezbollah stronger than before. While Israel has not explicitly stated its intention to eliminate Hezbollah from Lebanon's political landscape, it is evident that the Israeli government is determined to significantly weaken the group. The following day, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel, prompting millions of Israelis to seek shelter. The IDF reported that most of the missiles were intercepted, but some did manage to strike central and southern Israel. The attack resulted in the death of a Palestinian man in the occupied West Bank. Iran's decision to escalate its military response was likely motivated by the need to demonstrate its strength in the face of Hezbollah's losses. However, it is clear that Iran does not desire a full-scale war, as it recognizes the potential consequences of such a conflict. The Iranian leadership is aware that a direct confrontation with Israel could lead to severe repercussions for their regime. As the situation continues to unfold, Hezbollah has vowed to persist in its fight against Israel, despite suffering significant losses. The historical context suggests that while Israel can enter Lebanon with relative ease, exiting the country is far more challenging. The international community remains on edge, particularly in light of President Joe Biden's warnings to Israel against targeting Iranian interests in retaliation. Nevertheless, some Israeli leaders have hinted at a desire for regime change in Iran. For now, Israel's primary focus remains on achieving total victory in Gaza and neutralizing the threat posed by Hezbollah along its northern border. Israeli officials have indicated that they are engaged in a multi-front war, with conflicts arising from various regions, including Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank, Yemen, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. While a full-scale regional war has not yet materialized, the complexity of the situation and the involvement of multiple actors suggest that the conflict in Gaza has the potential to escalate dramatically.