中國現在在柬埔寨有永久軍事基地嗎？

Recent developments at Cambodia's Ream naval base have raised concerns in the United States regarding China's military ambitions in the region. Satellite images have revealed the presence of two Chinese navy corvettes, which are 1,500-ton warships, docked at a newly constructed pier built by China. This pier is large enough to accommodate even bigger vessels, and there are additional facilities onshore that are believed to be for the Chinese navy's use. Despite these observations, the Cambodian government has consistently denied that Ream is a Chinese military base, emphasizing that it is a Cambodian facility open to all friendly navies. Seun Sam, a policy analyst at the Royal Academy of Cambodia, stated, 'Please understand this is a Cambodian, not a Chinese base. ' He highlighted Cambodia's limited military capabilities and the need for training assistance from foreign partners, particularly China. However, skepticism remains among international observers, especially given the rapid expansion of Chinese naval power. China now boasts a larger navy than the United States, yet it currently operates only one overseas military base in Djibouti, which was established in 2016. In contrast, the United States maintains around 750 military bases worldwide, including several in close proximity to China, such as in Japan and South Korea. The US government is concerned that the balance of military power is shifting due to China's ambitions to become a global military force. This is further compounded by China's extensive investments in infrastructure projects through its Belt and Road Initiative, which are often built to military specifications. Some analysts in Washington predict that China may eventually establish a network of military bases or civilian ports that could serve military purposes, with Ream potentially being one of the first. The relationship between Cambodia and China has evolved significantly in recent years. Until a few years ago, the Ream base was being upgraded with assistance from the United States, which provided substantial military aid to Cambodia. However, following the banning of Cambodia's main opposition party in 2017, the US reduced its military support. Consequently, Cambodia shifted its focus towards China, canceling joint military exercises with the US and instead participating in the Golden Dragon exercises with China. By 2020, US-funded structures at Ream were demolished, and a significant expansion of Chinese-funded facilities commenced. The new pier at Ream closely resembles the one in Djibouti and is capable of accommodating China's largest aircraft carrier. The Cambodian government claims that the Chinese ships at Ream are there for training purposes and that their presence is not permanent, thus not constituting a military base. Nevertheless, US officials have expressed concerns about the ongoing expansion of the site, which now includes a new dry dock, warehouses, and what appear to be administrative offices and living quarters. In 2019, a report by the Wall Street Journal suggested that a leaked agreement between Cambodia and China involved leasing 77 hectares of the base for 30 years, which allegedly included the stationing of military personnel and weapons. The Cambodian government dismissed this report as false, but it is noteworthy that only Chinese warships have been allowed to dock at the new pier, while Japanese destroyers were redirected to a nearby port. Even if the Chinese presence at Ream becomes more permanent, some analysts argue that it may not violate Cambodia's constitution, which prohibits a permanent foreign military presence. They point out that while the base is expanding with Chinese funding, it is not officially leased to China. Kirsten Gunness, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation, noted, 'We are seeing a pattern of Chinese ships being continuously docked at Ream. ' She explained that one way to circumvent the constitutional prohibition is to allow foreign forces access on a rotational basis without officially designating it as a foreign base. Most analysts believe that a long-term Chinese presence at Ream would not provide significant advantages to China. They reference China's existing bases in the South China Sea and its formidable naval capabilities along its southern coast. However, a Chinese base at Ream could raise concerns for neighboring countries like Thailand and Vietnam, as it may be perceived as an attempt by China to encircle Vietnam's coastline. Both Vietnam and the Philippines have disputes with China over territorial claims in the South China Sea, and tensions have escalated in the past. Thai officials have privately expressed alarm at the prospect of a Chinese base near their main naval port in Sattahip, especially given the unresolved territorial disputes between Thailand and Cambodia. Despite these concerns, neither Thailand nor Vietnam is likely to voice their apprehensions publicly, as they seek to maintain stable economic relations with China. The US and Indian strategists are also wary of the potential for a Chinese base in the Indian Ocean, similar to the Chinese-controlled port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka or the Gwadar port in Pakistan, which has received significant Chinese investment. However, these scenarios remain distant possibilities. Few analysts believe that China will be able to rival the global military reach of the United States in the near future. Greg Poling, director of the CSIS Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, stated, 'The Ream base does not add much in the way of power projection - it doesn’t get the Chinese navy any closer to places it wants to go. ' He added that while the base may not enhance China's military capabilities significantly, it could play a role in intelligence gathering and monitoring long-range targets.