庫克群島與中國的協議激怒了盟友，西方控制力減弱

The Cook Islands, a small yet resource-rich nation in the Pacific, has stirred up tensions with its traditional allies by signing a series of agreements with China. Prime Minister Mark Brown has made these deals without consulting the public or New Zealand, a close ally that has historically supported the Cook Islands. These agreements, which are the first of their kind with a non-traditional ally, encompass various sectors including infrastructure, shipbuilding, tourism, agriculture, technology, education, and notably, deep-sea mineral exploration. Brown asserts that his decisions are made in the 'long-term interests' of the Cook Islands, which face challenges such as climate change and economic vulnerability. However, this has not been a universally accepted viewpoint. The new agreements with China have sparked protests on Rarotonga, the largest island in the Cook Islands, and have led to a vote of no confidence against Brown in parliament, which he narrowly survived. Australia, another significant ally, has expressed its concerns regarding these developments. New Zealand officials have stated they were 'blindsided' by the agreements with China, but Brown maintains that the Cook Islands is an independent nation and does not require New Zealand's approval for its decisions. He has attempted to reassure both Australia and New Zealand that the new agreements with China do not diminish their existing relationships. Nevertheless, this situation arises at a time when it appears that Western influence in the Pacific is waning. The growing presence of China in the Pacific region is not a new phenomenon. China has been expanding its influence through various means, such as securing a security deal with the Solomon Islands and providing medical assistance to Tonga. The United States and its allies have been actively working to counter this influence. However, the dynamics have shifted recently due to the unpredictable nature of the Trump administration, which has strained relationships with traditional allies like Ukraine. The Cook Islands has maintained a 'free association' relationship with New Zealand since the 1960s, which means that New Zealand assists with defense and foreign affairs, and Cook Islanders are considered New Zealand citizens. This close relationship is significant, as approximately 15,000 Cook Islanders reside in the Cook Islands, while around 100,000 live in New Zealand and Australia. Culturally, the Cook Island Māori, who make up the majority of the population, share similarities with New Zealand Māori but are also distinct. The agreements with China are not the only indication that Brown is seeking to distance the Cook Islands from New Zealand. He recently abandoned a proposal to introduce a Cook Islands passport, which has raised further concerns among the population. Jackie Tuara, a Cook Islander, expressed her worries at a recent demonstration against Brown's agreements with China, stating, 'The relationship with New Zealand connects us politically and connects us to our brothers and sisters of Aotearoa. We need to remember that. ' During the protest, several hundred people gathered outside the parliament in Rarotonga, holding signs that read, 'Stay connected with NZ. ' Some demonstrators even waved their New Zealand passports. Tuara emphasized the importance of standing with countries that share democratic values, saying, 'We don't want to see our land and our oceans sold to the highest bidder. Those resources are for us and for our children. ' Despite the opposition, there are also many Cook Islanders who support Brown's decisions. Philipp Ivanov, a specialist on China, agrees with the prime minister, stating that Pacific island nations have their own agency and motivations. He believes that the recent developments in the Cook Islands are part of a larger geopolitical game involving Australia, China, and New Zealand. Brown insists that he is acting in the best interests of his people. While the United States has historically been a dominant force in security and military matters in the region, China has been working to strengthen its ties with small Pacific Island nations through aid and infrastructure projects. In response, countries like the United States and the United Kingdom have increased their diplomatic presence in the region. Australia has also pledged to enhance its support. However, it remains uncertain how much the Biden administration will continue the commitments made by its predecessor to counter China, especially given the current political climate. Recently, planes traveling between New Zealand and Australia were diverted due to the presence of Chinese warships along the eastern coast of Australia. Experts view this as an escalation and a demonstration of power from China. Chinese vessels have been operating close to Australia and New Zealand, raising concerns about regional security. Euan Graham, a defense analyst, noted that this situation serves as a test of the diplomatic responses from both Australia and New Zealand, as well as the United States' willingness to defend its allies. He pointed out that China has a numerical advantage over smaller countries with limited naval capabilities, making it challenging for them to respond effectively. China's ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, stated that Beijing's actions were appropriate and that he would not apologize for them. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia emphasized that no international laws were violated and that the military exercises were conducted in international waters. Many observers have noted that Australia and its allies frequently conduct naval operations in the South China Sea. Mihai Sora, a director at the Lowy Institute, suggested that China is capitalizing on the current chaotic situation created by the Trump administration. He believes that China is trying to convey a message to Australia that it is isolated and questioning the United States' commitment to the region. Australia's Foreign Minister, Penny Wong, acknowledged that there is a constant competition in the region. The government is attempting to reassure the public about China's intentions while also preparing for upcoming elections. They want to avoid giving the opposition any opportunity to criticize their approach to national security. The United States has traditionally been a strong supporter of Pacific Island nations, but the current uncertainty in US-China relations leaves allies unsure of what to expect. The recent activities of Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea highlight this feeling of isolation. Sora described these actions as political statements rather than military threats, indicating that China can act whenever it wants without fear of consequences. The situation in the Pacific is complex, and it is clear that the relationships between these countries are not easy. The Cook Islands' decision to engage with China has raised many questions about the future of its relationships with New Zealand and Australia.