兩年，秘密會談，高風險：囚犯交換協議是如何達成的

Recently, a significant event took place when a notorious Russian assassin and an American journalist boarded separate planes in Turkey. This moment marked the end of a complex and secretive prisoner swap deal between Russia and the West, a deal that had been in the works for several years. The roots of this agreement can be traced back to 2022, but the negotiations between Russia, the United States, and four European nations intensified earlier this year, culminating in a final agreement that all parties could accept. These negotiations were often intense and challenging, especially given the rising tensions between the US and Russia due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Jake Sullivan, the US national security adviser who played a crucial role in the negotiations, described the process as a culmination of many rounds of intricate discussions over several months. The first indication that Russia might be open to a deal emerged in the autumn of 2022. At that time, the US was engaged in talks to secure the release of Brittney Griner, a prominent American basketball player who had been arrested in Russia for possessing cannabis oil. Griner was eventually released later that year in a high-profile exchange for Viktor Bout, a notorious Russian arms dealer. However, during these discussions, Russian officials expressed their desire to secure the release of Vadim Krasikov, a hitman serving a life sentence in Germany for a murder ordered by the Kremlin. Mr. Sullivan communicated this information to his German counterpart, suggesting that Russia was interested in Krasikov's release in exchange for Alexei Navalny, a prominent anti-Putin activist and opposition leader imprisoned in Russia. Germany, however, was hesitant to release a hitman who had committed such a brazen crime on its territory. While Mr. Sullivan did not receive a definitive response from Germany, these initial discussions laid the groundwork for the more complex agreement that was finalized in recent weeks at a Turkish airport. Both sides began to signal their interests, with Russia clearly wanting Krasikov and the US seeking not only Navalny but also Paul Whelan, a former Marine imprisoned in Russia on espionage charges since 2018. The early stages of a potential swap deal began to take shape, but there was still a long way to go. In late March 2023, a 31-year-old Wall Street Journal reporter named Evan Gershkovich was arrested by Russian intelligence while on assignment. His detention sparked widespread condemnation from the US and its allies. The following day, President Biden instructed Mr. Sullivan to work on a deal to bring Gershkovich and Whelan home. The US initiated direct communication with Russia, and discussions began in earnest, with foreign ministers from both countries speaking on the phone. However, the conversations soon shifted from high-level diplomats to secretive intelligence agencies, a move the US was cautious about due to Gershkovich's espionage accusations. As negotiations progressed in late 2023, the US realized that Krasikov's release was essential for a successful deal. Offers made to Russia that did not include the hitman were consistently rejected. Given that Krasikov was imprisoned in Germany, the US lacked the authority to release him unilaterally. Mr. Sullivan maintained regular communication with his German counterpart in late 2023 and early January 2024, urging them to consider releasing Krasikov to meet Russia's key demand. The potential agreement hinged on Germany's willingness to release Krasikov. Moscow's position was that its imprisoned spies should be exchanged for the Americans it accused of espionage. With this understanding, the US sought to identify more Russian spies held by its allies to form a comprehensive deal. US officials, diplomats, and CIA personnel traveled globally to find friendly governments willing to release prisoners fitting that description. A sign of their success came when Russians were released from prisons in Poland, Slovenia, and Norway on the day of the swap. In February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met with President Biden at the White House, where they discussed options for a swap involving all key individuals, including Krasikov, Navalny, Whelan, and Gershkovich. Positive signals from Russia emerged as well. In an interview, President Putin hinted that Gershkovich might return to the US, indicating Moscow's openness to a deal. However, just days after that meeting, a tragic event occurred. Alexei Navalny, a high-profile prisoner who could have been part of the exchange, died in his Siberian prison cell at the age of 47. Many supporters and foreign leaders blamed Putin for his death, while Russian authorities claimed he died of natural causes. At the time of his death, little was known about the negotiations, but Navalny's colleague publicly stated that he had been close to being freed in exchange for Krasikov. The Kremlin denied that any agreement was near completion. Following Navalny's death, the White House confirmed that they had been working to include him in the deal, which ultimately resulted in the release of three individuals associated with the opposition figure. Mr. Sullivan expressed the emotional impact of Navalny's death, stating that it felt like the wind had been taken out of their sails. Coincidentally, on the day of Navalny's death, Mr. Gershkovich's parents were meeting with Mr. Sullivan at the White House. Recognizing the significance of the news and its potential impact on negotiations, he informed them that the path forward would be more challenging. The death of Navalny led to arrests in Russia as people celebrated his life, and it complicated the prisoner swap discussions. Vice-President Kamala Harris held two crucial meetings to keep the potential swap on track. She attended the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, where she emphasized the importance of releasing Krasikov to Chancellor Scholz. She also met with the prime minister of Slovenia, where two Russian prisoners identified by the US as high-priority for Moscow were being held. These prisoners were released on the same day as the swap. In the spring, a new deal was formed that no longer included Navalny, and in June, Germany agreed to exchange Krasikov. Mr. Scholz told President Biden that he would do this for him. The deal was submitted to Russia, which accepted the terms and agreed to release those on the list held in Russian prisons. However, as negotiations reached their final stages, domestic politics intruded, with President Biden facing pressure from his own party to end his re-election bid after a poor debate performance. According to Mr. Sullivan, just an hour before Biden announced on July 21 that he would not seek re-election, he was on a call with his Slovenian counterpart finalizing the prisoner swap. As with any high-stakes prisoner exchange, the deal was not guaranteed, even as the planes were lined up and the prisoners' routes home were being arranged. Mr. Sullivan expressed the anxiety felt by the team, stating, 'We held our breath and crossed our fingers until just a couple of hours ago. ' President Biden later shared a photo of the released Americans on a plane heading back to the US, along with a message that they were safe, free, and on their way back to their families.