印度和巴基斯坦之間爆發核戰的風險有多大？

The threat of nuclear war between India and Pakistan is a serious concern that has been highlighted by recent events. India has successfully tested its Agni-5 missile, which has a range of over 5,000 kilometers. This missile allows India to join a select group of nations, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France, and China, that possess the capability to strike targets across continents. The Agni-5 can carry a nuclear warhead weighing up to 1,000 kilograms and was launched from Wheeler Island in India. This test demonstrates India's commitment to enhancing its defense capabilities. The ongoing tensions between India and Pakistan serve as a reminder of how quickly conflicts can escalate. Although there were no direct threats exchanged during the latest standoff, the situation evoked fears of a potential nuclear confrontation. A study conducted by a team of scientists in 2019 illustrated how a terrorist attack on India's parliament could trigger a nuclear exchange with Pakistan. This scenario underscores the fragility of stability in the region. As tensions rose, Pakistan sent mixed signals by responding militarily while also convening a meeting of its National Command Authority (NCA), which oversees the country's nuclear arsenal. This move was a calculated reminder of Pakistan's nuclear capabilities, but whether it was a genuine alert or a symbolic gesture remains uncertain. The involvement of the United States, particularly Secretary of State Marco Rubio, aimed to de-escalate the situation. President Trump stated that the U. S. played a crucial role in preventing a larger conflict. In a recent address, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi emphasized that India would not be intimidated by nuclear threats and would take decisive action against any terrorist safe havens. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), there are approximately 12,121 nuclear warheads worldwide, with around 9,585 in military stockpiles. The U. S. and Russia together possess more than 8,000 nuclear weapons. Both India and Pakistan have developed land-based missile forces as their primary means of delivering nuclear warheads, but they are also working on creating nuclear triads that can deliver weapons by land, air, and sea. Security expert Christopher Clary noted that India likely has a more advanced air capability for delivering nuclear weapons compared to Pakistan. While the specifics of Pakistan's naval capabilities remain unclear, it is believed that India's naval nuclear force is more developed. Since conducting nuclear tests in 1998, Pakistan has not officially declared a nuclear doctrine, while India has adopted a no-first-use policy. However, this stance has shown signs of change, as India has reserved the right to respond with nuclear weapons to chemical or biological attacks. This ambiguity raises questions about India's long-term nuclear strategy. Pakistan's Shaheen II missile is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and has been tested in the past. The absence of a formal nuclear doctrine does not imply that Pakistan lacks one; rather, its operational posture is shaped by official statements and nuclear developments. In 2001, Pakistan's leadership outlined four red lines that would trigger a nuclear response, including major territorial loss and destruction of key military assets. Former U. S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo recounted a tense moment during the 2019 standoff when he received a warning from an unnamed Indian counterpart. The history of conflicts between India and Pakistan, such as the Kargil War, has shown that both sides are willing to defend their territories. Despite the risks, experts believe that the chances of nuclear war remain relatively low as long as there is no major ground combat along the border. However, the potential for accidental escalation exists due to human error, cyber threats, and miscommunication. An incident in March 2022, where an Indian missile accidentally crossed into Pakistani territory, serves as a reminder of how quickly situations can escalate. Both countries have managed to avoid a catastrophic nuclear conflict so far, but the presence of nuclear weapons adds a constant undercurrent of risk. The leadership in both nations has navigated these challenges in the past, but even a small risk of nuclear war is considered too large. The ongoing development of nuclear arsenals in both countries, including new delivery systems and expanding capabilities, raises concerns about the future. Experts warn that while the deterrent effect of nuclear weapons has held so far, the potential for miscalculation or accidental escalation remains a significant threat.