習近平擔心經濟──中國人怎麼看？

In recent times, the economy in China has been facing significant challenges, leading to growing concerns among its leaders, including President Xi Jinping. The government has implemented various measures to stimulate economic growth, such as cash handouts and new policies aimed at revitalizing the struggling property market. During a recent address, Xi Jinping acknowledged the 'potential dangers' that the economy may encounter, indicating a recognition of the serious issues at hand. However, the impact of the economic slowdown on the everyday lives of Chinese citizens remains less clear, as their expectations and frustrations are often subject to censorship. Two new studies shed light on the current sentiment among the Chinese populace. The first study, which surveyed attitudes towards the economy, revealed a rising sense of pessimism and disillusionment regarding future prospects. The second study documented an increase in protests, both in-person and online, driven by economic grievances. While these studies do not provide a complete picture, they offer valuable insights into the prevailing economic climate and the feelings of ordinary Chinese people. The economic downturn has been exacerbated by high public debt and increasing unemployment, which have negatively affected savings and spending habits. As a result, China may fall short of its growth target of 5% for the year, a sobering reality for the ruling Communist Party. The rapid economic growth that once transformed China into a global powerhouse has now given way to uncertainty, challenging the narrative of stable prosperity that the government has long promoted. The economic slowdown coincided with the end of the pandemic, largely due to the three years of strict lockdowns that severely restricted economic activity. Research conducted by American professors Martin Whyte, Scott Rozelle, and Michael Alisky examined public sentiment over the years, comparing data from 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2023. In 2004, nearly 60% of respondents reported that their families' economic situations had improved over the past five years, and a similar percentage expressed optimism about the future. These figures continued to rise in 2009 and 2014, with 72. 4% and 76. 5% respectively indicating positive changes in their lives. However, by 2023, only 38. 8% felt that their lives had improved, and less than half believed that conditions would get better in the next five years. The proportion of individuals expressing pessimism about the future also increased significantly, from just 2. 3% in 2004 to 16% in 2023. The surveys aimed to capture a broad range of opinions, but obtaining diverse perspectives in an authoritarian context like China is challenging. The respondents were drawn from 29 provinces and administrative regions, although areas like Xinjiang and parts of Tibet were excluded due to political sensitivities. Many young Chinese individuals are making different life choices in response to the economic situation. With rising unemployment, numerous college graduates are accepting low-paying jobs, while others are pushing back against the relentless work culture. Some have even returned to their parents' homes due to job scarcity or burnout. Analysts believe that the government's strict management of Covid-19 has played a significant role in diminishing public optimism. Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, noted that the pandemic served as a turning point for many, highlighting the authoritarian nature of the state and leaving people feeling policed. Moxi, a 38-year-old former psychiatrist, shared his experience of leaving his high-pressure job to find a more relaxed lifestyle in Dali, a city known for its scenic beauty and appeal to young people seeking a break from stress. He expressed that during his time as a psychiatrist, he lacked the time and energy to contemplate his life direction. The survey results indicate a shift in attitudes towards hard work and its perceived rewards. In previous years, a majority of respondents believed that effort would always be rewarded in China. However, by 2023, only 28. 3% held this belief, while a third disagreed. This sentiment was particularly pronounced among lower-income families earning less than 50,000 yuan annually. The traditional notion that education and hard work lead to financial success has been challenged, with many respondents attributing wealth to family privilege and connections rather than individual merit. Despite government efforts to address wealth inequality, critics argue that these measures have primarily resulted in crackdowns on businesses rather than meaningful change. The rise in protests is another indicator of public discontent, with an 18% increase in protest incidents reported in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period the previous year. The China Dissent Monitor (CDM) defines protests as instances where individuals voice grievances or advocate for their interests in opposition to authority, whether in person or online. While these protests may seem small, they are significant in a country where dissent is often suppressed. The CDM's research indicates that at least three-quarters of protest cases are driven by economic grievances, with nearly 6,400 events documented since June 2022. Protests have been particularly prominent among rural residents and blue-collar workers addressing issues such as land grabs and low wages, as well as middle-class citizens organizing in response to the real estate crisis. Although the Communist Party is concerned about these developments, it is difficult to predict how dissent may escalate if economic conditions continue to deteriorate. The government has been actively censoring online discussions related to financial frustrations, with vocal posts being swiftly removed and influencers facing bans for showcasing extravagant lifestyles. State media has defended these actions as part of efforts to create a 'civilized, healthy, and harmonious' environment. Reports have also emerged of individuals being detained for criticizing Xi Jinping's economic policies. The Communist Party aims to control the narrative surrounding economic issues, shaping the information available to the public. Despite the level of state control, the CDM's research indicates that discontent has fueled protests, which poses a challenge for Beijing. In November 2022, widespread protests erupted against strict zero-Covid policies, demonstrating the willingness of citizens to voice their concerns. While the researchers do not anticipate an explosive outburst of anger over inequality, they acknowledge that the economic slowdown is undermining the legitimacy the Party has built through decades of sustained growth and improved living standards. The lingering effects of the pandemic continue to haunt many Chinese citizens, with the government's inconsistent responses during that time heightening feelings of insecurity about the future. This sense of insecurity is particularly pronounced among marginalized groups, such as women facing discrimination in the labor market and rural residents excluded from welfare benefits. Young people like Moxi are seeking alternative lifestyles, drawn to quieter towns where they can find solace and pursue their dreams. Moxi expressed relief at having discovered a slower pace of life in Dali, reflecting on the increasing number of patients he encountered during his psychiatric practice who struggled with depression and anxiety as the economy thrived. He emphasized the distinction between the country's economic success and the well-being of its people.