突尼斯總統尋求連任，他幾乎肯定會獲勝

Tunisia's President Kais Saied is preparing to run for re-election this Sunday, and many believe he is almost guaranteed to win. A number of politicians had hoped to challenge him, but just days before the election, one of them, Ayachi Zammel, was sentenced to 12 years in prison for allegedly falsifying documents. Tunisia is historically significant as the birthplace of the Arab Spring, a series of protests against authoritarian rulers that began in late 2010. The country was once viewed as a shining example of democracy in the Arab world. However, since President Saied took office in 2019, he has made several controversial moves, including suspending parliament, rewriting the constitution, and consolidating power in his own hands. This election marks Tunisia's third presidential election since the ousting of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in 2011, who had ruled for over two decades. Sarah Yerkes, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, stated that President Saied has manipulated the political landscape to the point where he is the only viable candidate. There have been no significant campaign rallies or public debates, and the streets are filled with posters of the president. According to Ms. Yerkes, this election is essentially a referendum on Kais Saied himself. The largest opposition party in Tunisia, Ennahda, has reported that many of its senior members have been arrested, a situation they claim is unprecedented. Human Rights Watch, based in New York, has indicated that the authorities have excluded eight other potential candidates from the election through legal actions and imprisonment. In the lead-up to the election, protests have erupted in Tunis, with citizens demanding free and fair elections. Although Zammel, who leads the small liberal Azimoun party, is in jail for allegedly falsifying voter signatures, his name will still appear on the ballot. He has denied the charges, according to reports from Reuters. Another candidate, Zouhair Maghzaoui, initially supported President Saied's power grab in 2021 but has since become a critic. Agnès Callamard, the secretary-general of Amnesty International, remarked that the Tunisian authorities are conducting a clear pre-election assault on human rights. Ms. Yerkes noted that President Saied has systematically dismantled a decade's worth of democratic progress. When Saied, a respected legal scholar, won over 70% of the presidential vote in 2019, he promised to create 'a new Tunisia. ' He aimed to represent the non-elite and give a voice to marginalized populations. He made promises to rejuvenate the economy and combat corruption. When asked about his plans for the economy, he stated he would 'empower the people with tools,' but he did not clarify what those tools would be. Nicknamed 'the professor,' he enjoyed significant support, particularly among young people who were frustrated with the ongoing political disputes. However, in 2021, he initiated what experts have termed a 'self-coup' by dismissing parliament and assuming all executive powers. He justified his actions by claiming he needed new powers to break the cycle of political stagnation and economic decline. That same year, he denied any autocratic ambitions in an interview with the New York Times, quoting former French President Charles de Gaulle: 'Why do you think that, at 67, I would start a career as a dictator? ' Under Saied's leadership, Tunisia has fallen from 53rd to 82nd place on the Economist Intelligence Unit's democracy index, which assesses political freedoms and pluralism. Ms. Yerkes stated that he has already reverted Tunisia to an autocratic state. Most of the election posters seen in Tunisia are for President Saied. In addition to the decline of democracy, the issue of unemployment is also a pressing concern. The unemployment rate stands at 16%, and many young people are leaving the country in search of better opportunities. Tunisia has become a key departure point for migrants aiming to reach Europe. According to UN figures, at least 12,000 migrants who arrived on Italy's shores last year departed from Tunisia. In response to fears of a migrant influx, the European Union has struck a deal with Tunisia, providing the country with $118 million to combat smuggling, strengthen borders, and repatriate migrants. President Saied has adopted a populist approach to garner support, blaming migrants for the country's economic woes. He accused black sub-Saharan migrants of being part of a 'plot' to alter the country's demographic makeup, attributing the blame to 'traitors working for foreign nations. ' This rhetoric has sparked a wave of racist attacks against black individuals living in Tunisia. While his comments have garnered some support, they have also alienated others, leading to anti-racist protests in response. Despite attempting to shift the blame, he has shown no signs of being able to improve the economy. In his first electoral statement, released shortly after the official campaign began, Saied pledged to enhance health services, transportation, and social security after years of efforts to 'eliminate' public institutions. His consolidation of power has created a sense of apathy among the electorate as well. Last year, only 11% of voters participated in the election for new parliament members. Experts predict that voter turnout will likely be similarly low this time around. The official results of the election will be announced within three days, but the outcome seems almost certain.