美國大選將如何影響中東

As the US election approaches, many are curious about how it might affect the Middle East. Lucy Williamson, a correspondent based in Jerusalem, reports on a unique community called Trump Heights. This area, located in the Golan Heights, is a small cluster of homes named after former President Donald Trump. The community is situated in a rugged landscape that Israel captured from Syria during the 1967 war. When Trump was in office, he made a significant decision that pleased Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu by recognizing Israel's claim to the Golan Heights. This move was a departure from decades of US policy and international consensus. Now, residents of Trump Heights, including families like Elik and Hodaya Goldberg, are left wondering how the upcoming election will impact their lives and Israel's interests in the region. The Goldbergs moved to Trump Heights seeking the safety of a close-knit community. However, since the Hamas attacks in southern Israel last October, they have witnessed an escalation of conflict with Hezbollah, a group allied with Hamas, just ten miles from their home. Elik expressed his concerns, stating, 'For the last year, our beautiful green open space has a lot of smoke, and our lovely view is a view of rockets that Hezbollah is sending to us. This is a war zone and we don’t know when it will end. ' He hopes that the new US administration will 'do the right thing' by supporting Israel. This sentiment is common among many Israelis, who believe that the US should stand by their side. Trump has been viewed favorably by many in Israel for his actions during his presidency, including withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, facilitating normalization agreements with several Arab nations, and recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Netanyahu has referred to Trump as 'the best friend Israel has ever had in the White House. ' As the election nears, Netanyahu has openly expressed his support for Trump, and polls indicate that a significant majority of Israelis would prefer to see him return to the presidency. In contrast, Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has garnered less support, with less than 20% of Israelis favoring her. Some, like Gili Shmuelevits, a young woman shopping in Jerusalem, criticized Harris for her comments at a rally where she seemed to agree with a protester who accused Israel of genocide. Although Harris later clarified her stance, many in Israel remain skeptical of her support. Rivka, another shopper, stated, 'I get that people don’t love him, but I don’t need to love him. I need him to be a good ally for Israel. ' This perspective reflects a broader sentiment in Israel that good allies should not criticize or pressure them. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has further complicated US-Israel relations. Harris has been vocal in calling for a ceasefire and emphasizing humanitarian concerns, expressing her 'serious concern about the scale of human suffering' in Gaza. In contrast, Trump has framed the situation in terms of Israel's 'victory' and has opposed an immediate ceasefire, reportedly telling Netanyahu to 'do what you have to do. ' This divergence in approach highlights the differing views of the two candidates. Many Palestinians, however, feel disillusioned with both candidates. Mustafa Barghouti, a respected Palestinian analyst, stated, 'The overall estimation is that the Democrats are bad, but if Trump is elected it’ll be even worse. ' He believes that Harris may be more attuned to shifts in American public opinion, which could lead to a greater emphasis on a ceasefire. The Gaza War has intensified calls from US allies, such as Saudi Arabia, for progress towards a Palestinian state, but neither candidate has prioritized this issue. When asked about supporting a Palestinian state during the presidential debates, Trump responded, 'I’d have to see. ' Many Palestinians have lost hope in the prospect of a Palestinian state and feel that the US has failed to uphold international law, often siding with Israel. Barghouti remarked, 'The issue of a Palestinian state is nothing but a slogan. ' Regarding Iran, the two candidates have historically taken different approaches. Trump has recently advised Israel to 'hit the nuclear first and worry about the rest later,' following Israeli strikes on Iran in response to missile attacks. Former Israeli ambassador Danny Ayalon suggested that while Trump might adopt a more aggressive stance, it is essential not to overstate the differences between the candidates. Both Harris and Trump are discussing new deals to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and expanding normalization agreements with Arab nations, particularly Saudi Arabia. However, their methods may differ. Ayalon believes that if Harris were in the White House, her approach would be more gradual, focusing on ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon before addressing broader issues like Iran. In contrast, he suggested that Trump would take a more direct approach, tackling Iran first and then addressing other regional concerns. Political insiders in both Israel and the US view Harris as more aligned with traditional bipartisan foreign policy positions, while Trump is seen as unpredictable and prone to ad-hoc decision-making. Ayalon emphasized that public perception matters in US-Israeli relations, stating, 'A lot is personal. The shared interests are a given, but the personalities matter. ' As the election date of November 5 approaches, BBC correspondents worldwide are examining the potential impact of the election outcome on various regions, including the Middle East.