美國大選民調：哈里斯還是川普誰領先？

On November 5, voters in the United States will head to the polls to choose their next president. This election is particularly significant as it could result in the election of Kamala Harris, the first woman president, or a second term for Donald Trump. Initially, the election was expected to be a rematch of the 2020 election, but the dynamics shifted dramatically in July when President Joe Biden announced the end of his campaign and endorsed Vice President Harris. As the election day approaches, many are left wondering who will ultimately prevail in this high-stakes race. We will be closely monitoring the polls to gauge the candidates' standings as the election nears. Currently, national polling averages indicate that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump. This suggests that a greater number of voters are expressing their intention to support her over him. In the months leading up to Biden's withdrawal from the race, polls consistently showed him trailing Trump. However, the race became more competitive once Harris began her campaign, allowing her to establish a slight lead that she has managed to maintain. The two candidates faced off in a televised debate in Pennsylvania on September 10, which attracted an audience of over 67 million viewers. Following the debate, several quick polls indicated that a majority of viewers believed Harris performed better than Trump. Since the debate, national polls have indicated that Harris has made some modest gains. While her polling average has not changed significantly, her lead has increased slightly from 2. 5 percentage points on the day of the debate to 2. 9 points a week later. This slight increase in her lead can be attributed primarily to a decline in Trump's numbers. His average had been on the rise leading up to the debate, but it fell by half a percentage point in the week following the event. The poll tracker chart illustrates these minor fluctuations, with trend lines depicting how the averages have shifted and dots representing individual poll results for each candidate. While national polls provide a useful overview of a candidate's popularity across the country, they do not necessarily serve as an accurate predictor of the election outcome. This is due to the United States' electoral college system, where each state is allocated a number of votes roughly corresponding to its population size. A total of 538 electoral college votes are available, and a candidate must secure 270 to win the presidency. Although there are 50 states in the US, most tend to consistently vote for the same party, meaning that only a select few states, known as battleground states, truly determine the election's outcome. At present, the polls in the seven battleground states are extremely close, making it challenging to ascertain who is genuinely leading the race. There are fewer state polls available compared to national polls, resulting in less data to analyze, and each poll carries a margin of error that could affect the reported numbers. Recent polling suggests that the candidates are separated by just one or two percentage points in several key states. Pennsylvania, in particular, is crucial due to its high number of electoral votes, which makes it easier for the winning candidate to reach the necessary 270 votes. Historically, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin have been strongholds for the Democratic Party, but Trump managed to flip them in 2016. Biden reclaimed these states in 2020, and if Harris can do the same this year, she will be well-positioned to win the election. Notably, on the day Biden exited the race, he was trailing Trump by nearly five percentage points on average in these battleground states, highlighting the significant shift in the race since Harris became the Democratic nominee. The averages presented in the graphics above are compiled by 538, a part of the American news network ABC News. To create these averages, 538 gathers data from individual polls conducted both nationally and in battleground states by various polling organizations. As part of their quality control process, 538 only includes polls from companies that adhere to specific criteria, such as transparency regarding the number of respondents, the timing of the poll, and the methodology used (telephone calls, text messages, online surveys, etc. ). It is essential to understand that while the current polls indicate a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in battleground states, predicting the winner remains challenging when the margins are so narrow. Polls have historically underestimated support for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Polling organizations are actively working to address this issue by refining their methods to better reflect the composition of the voting population. However, these adjustments are complex, and pollsters must still make educated guesses about various factors, including voter turnout on November 5.