執政 58 年的政黨承諾為波札那帶來變革

In Botswana, a nation located in southern Africa, the ruling party, known as the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), has held power for an impressive 58 years. As the country approaches a significant general election on Wednesday, the BDP is attempting to present a new image by calling for 'change', a term typically associated with opposition parties. President Mokgweetsi Masisi, who has been in office since 2018, emphasizes the need for collective action to foster prosperity for all citizens. This shift in messaging indicates a recognition that the current approach may not be sufficient, as critics argue that the BDP is not equipped to implement the necessary changes. Analysts are uncertain about the election's outcome, but historically, the BDP has secured substantial parliamentary majorities in all 11 elections since Botswana gained independence in 1966. The party has consistently won the presidency, as Members of Parliament elect the head of state. The BDP is credited with transforming Botswana from a nation with limited infrastructure and resources into one with relatively high living standards, largely due to its vast diamond reserves. Botswana is recognized as the world's leading producer of diamonds by value, which has significantly contributed to its economic growth. However, despite these achievements, the country faces considerable economic challenges, prompting President Masisi's call for change. The World Bank reports that over 25% of the working population is unemployed, with even higher rates among the youth. Zibani Maundeni, a political science professor at the University of Botswana, describes the situation as a 'jobless economy', highlighting the disconnect between the number of graduates entering the job market and the availability of suitable employment opportunities. The Botswana Congress Party (BCP), the main opposition party, is rallying support under the slogan 'Save Botswana', with its leader, Dumelang Saleshando, advocating for a shift in governance. Supporters of the BCP don lime green T-shirts and carry placards featuring Saleshando's image. Additionally, wealth distribution in Botswana is uneven, with significant disparities among its 2. 3 million citizens. The Gini index, a measure of income inequality, indicates that wealth is not shared equally. The diamond industry is also facing global pressures, as demand for diamonds has been declining. Nevertheless, President Masisi and the BDP maintain a confident stance. At a campaign rally in a region known for its opposition support, Masisi arrived in an electric vehicle manufactured in Botswana. He greeted his supporters with enthusiasm, dancing and engaging with the crowd, which responded with laughter and excitement. This area had previously elected three opposition MPs in 2019, following the defection of former President Ian Khama from the BDP to form the Botswana Patriotic Front (BPF). Khama expressed regret over choosing Masisi as his successor, leading to a public fallout between the two leaders. Khama has since left the country, alleging that the government attempted to poison him, and he faces charges of money laundering, which he denies. The political landscape has shifted, with Masisi appealing to voters to return to the BDP. Some supporters, like Thandiwe Potso, a 32-year-old hair salon owner, express confidence in Masisi's leadership, stating, 'Masisi truly understands our challenges and brought better programmes to fund our businesses. ' Kabelo Selemo, a small-business owner, echoed this sentiment, noting that Masisi's policies have positively impacted their ability to grow their businesses. However, an opinion poll suggests that many citizens are skeptical of the government, perceiving high levels of corruption. The respected polling organization Afrobarometer reported that a significant majority of respondents expressed distrust in the current administration and disapproved of Masisi's performance. Kagelelo Banks Kentse, a spokesperson for the BDP, questioned the poll's credibility, arguing that previous elections had underestimated the party's support. He acknowledged the unemployment issue but contended that similar challenges are faced by many nations across the continent. Kentse highlighted the BDP's commitment to creating 300,000 new jobs and touted a recently negotiated agreement with diamond company De Beers, which will allow Botswana to receive a larger share of the profits from diamond mining. Initially, the government will receive 30% of the rough diamonds, increasing to 50% within ten years. However, Saleshando criticized the BDP for merely imitating the ideas of other parties, asserting that the BCP had previously proposed job creation targets that the BDP rejected. He stated, 'I think people have seen the BDP for what it is. It certainly cannot argue that it is an agent of change. ' The Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), another opposition party that secured the second-largest share of the vote in 2019, is also mobilizing support. UDC leader Duma Boko adopts a serious tone, emphasizing the struggles faced by the populace under BDP rule. He has urged voters to remain vigilant and protect their votes during the election. Thapelo Dimpe, a former teacher, expressed his desire to see the BDP defeated, citing dissatisfaction with the government's education reforms. Despite the BDP's challenges, divisions among opposition parties may provide an opportunity for the ruling party to maintain its grip on power. In Botswana's electoral system, candidates are elected based on a first-past-the-post system, meaning that a party only needs to secure the most votes in a constituency to win a seat. This dynamic could lead to a split opposition vote, allowing the BDP to prevail. Political analyst Lesole Machacha noted that the BDP is not without its own internal issues, as some politicians dissatisfied with the primary process are running as independent candidates, potentially fragmenting the party's support. The upcoming election is shaping up to be closely contested and unpredictable. For one of Africa's most successful political parties, the pressing question remains whether the BDP can convince enough voters that it is capable of delivering the change that Botswana desperately needs.