川普稱敘利亞「不是我們的戰鬥」。待在外面可能沒那麼容易

During a recent visit to the beautifully restored Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris, Donald Trump, the president-elect of the United States, was keeping an eye on significant developments in Syria. While he was enjoying the moment with world leaders, armed Islamist fighters were advancing towards Damascus, working to dismantle the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Trump took to his Truth Social platform to express his views, stating, 'Syria is a mess, but is not our friend. The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved! ' This declaration underscores Trump's strong inclination towards a non-interventionist foreign policy, raising critical questions about the future of U. S. involvement in Syria. With the Assad government on the brink of collapse, can Trump genuinely maintain a stance of detachment? Will he withdraw U. S. troops from the region? And how does his approach differ from that of President Biden, especially in the final weeks before Trump assumes office? The current administration is engaged in a flurry of diplomatic efforts in response to the shifting dynamics in Syria. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is traveling between Jordan and Turkey, seeking support from key Arab and Muslim nations for a set of conditions that the U. S. is proposing for recognizing a future Syrian government. The U. S. insists that this new government must be transparent, inclusive, and must not serve as a base for terrorism. Additionally, it should not pose a threat to neighboring countries and must eliminate any chemical and biological weapons. Mike Waltz, Trump's nominee for national security adviser, emphasizes a guiding principle for Trump's foreign policy: 'President Trump was elected with an overwhelming mandate to not get the United States dug into any more Middle Eastern wars. ' This perspective encapsulates Trump's view of Syria as a minor piece in a larger regional strategy. His primary objectives include containing the remnants of the Islamic State group and ensuring that a future Syrian government does not threaten Israel, a crucial ally for the U. S. Furthermore, Trump is keen on pursuing a historic diplomatic and trade agreement to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which he believes would further undermine Iran's influence in the region. For Trump, the ongoing turmoil in Syria is a problem for the Syrians to resolve themselves. Trump's rhetoric about Syria echoes his previous comments during his first term, where he often dismissed the country as a place of 'sand and death. ' Robert Ford, who served as the U. S. ambassador to Syria under President Obama, noted that Trump had little interest in getting involved in Syria during his first administration. However, there are individuals within his circle who are more focused on counterterrorism efforts. Currently, around 900 U. S. troops are stationed in Syria, primarily east of the Euphrates River, with a mission to combat the Islamic State group and support the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which are composed of Kurdish and Arab allies. The SDF also manages camps housing IS fighters and their families. The U. S. presence in Syria has also extended to preventing Iran from using the country to supply weapons to Hezbollah. Analysts like Ford believe that while Trump's isolationist tendencies resonate well on social media, the realities on the ground and the perspectives of his own team may lead to a more nuanced approach. Wa'el Alzayat, a former adviser on Syria, pointed out that Trump is bringing in experienced individuals to his administration who will handle Middle Eastern affairs, including Senator Marco Rubio, who has a solid background in foreign policy. The tension between Trump's isolationist ideals and the need to achieve regional objectives has been a recurring theme during his presidency. In his first term, Trump made controversial decisions, such as cutting CIA funding for certain 'moderate' rebels and ordering the withdrawal of U. S. forces from northern Syria in 2019. At that time, Waltz labeled the move as 'a strategic mistake,' and concerns about a resurgence of the Islamic State led some of Trump's officials to partially reverse his decision. Trump also diverged from his non-interventionist stance by launching 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airfield in response to a chemical weapons attack that killed numerous civilians in 2017. He further intensified sanctions against Syria's leadership. The complexities of Trump's 'it's not our fight' pledge were highlighted by Waltz, who stated, 'That doesn't mean he's not willing to absolutely step in. ' He emphasized that Trump would take decisive action if the American homeland were threatened in any way. The nomination of Tulsi Gabbard as director of national intelligence adds another layer of complexity. Gabbard, a former Democrat who has aligned herself with Trump, has faced criticism for her past statements regarding Russia and Syria. The ongoing mission in Syria and the desire to conclude it are not unique to Trump. In January, three American soldiers lost their lives in a drone strike by Iran-backed militias operating in Syria and Iraq, raising concerns about the safety of U. S. forces in the region. Interestingly, despite the differences in tone and rhetoric, both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration share similar positions on Syria. Both leaders seek a government in Damascus that aligns with U. S. interests, aiming to build on the humiliation of Iran and Russia in Syria. Trump's assertion that 'this is not our fight, let it play out' parallels Biden's belief that the process should be led by Syrians rather than the United States. However, a significant difference lies in their approach to U. S. forces on the ground and support for the SDF. Biden has shown more empathy and connection to the Kurdish forces, while Trump may not prioritize them as much. Some analysts believe that Trump will eventually withdraw U. S. troops, but he will do so gradually and with a clear plan in place. The future of Syria may hinge on Trump's discussions with Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, as American support for the SDF has long been a source of tension with Turkey, which views the Kurdish forces as a terrorist organization. Since the fall of Assad, Turkey has conducted airstrikes to push Kurdish fighters out of strategic areas. Trump may seek to negotiate a deal with Erdogan that allows for the withdrawal of U. S. troops while strengthening Turkey's position. However, this raises concerns about the potential for Turkish-backed groups to take control of certain regions, which worries many, including Alzayat, who cautions against different factions running various parts of the country. He emphasizes the need for a political process, suggesting that the U. S. has a role to play in facilitating a resolution.